This past week I was in Oman. Oman has a history of being somewhat British friendly even today. My connection to the country is more personal.......one of my former wives was a citizen of the Wilayat of Muscat, and after talking with friends there, I believe that there is a distinct possibility that before the elections in November, American naval vessels will be in a "Pearl Harbor" situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The two aircraft carriers, currently, stationed in the Strait are "Sitting Ducks", and will go down at the first sign of war. My friends say that there is no defending the Strait in view of the current defensive strategy readied by Iran (suicide attacks). General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in January of 2012, said that Iran has invested in defensive capabilities that could block the Strait of Hormuz for months, but that the U.S. has invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat Iran at its own game.
My sources, in Oman, say that General Dempsey is most sadly mistaken in his "view" that America can defeat this Iranian strategy. They contend that a "Pearl Harbor" disaster awaits America, and should this disaster happen, this loss will demoralize the majority of Americans who are just tired of losing American military youth and being taxed for wars that have no reality to American interests abroad (it is my opinion that as most of this oil is not exported to the U.S., let the European nations handle Iran, and protect the Strait. But this is just my opinion.). And they further warn that if a major crisis should develop, in the Strait of Hormuz, before the November elections, the Democrats will win again, and so will Obama, and all the while he will pretend that he is going to "get tough" with Iran, but reality will be the usual endless cycle in diplomacy of the most rank form. And should this scenario happen, Israel will "go down", and America will not have the "push" from its citizens to help. Let me give you a history lesson on why Iran is now ready to "crush" America. And remember that 40% of the worlds oil travels through this 21 mile wide waterway.
1. Operation Praying Mantis: "On 18 April 1988, the U.S. Navy waged a one-day battle against Iranian forces in and around the strait. The battle, dubbed Operation Praying Mantis by the U.S. side, was launched in retaliation for the 14 April mining of the USS Samuel B. Roberts (FFG-58) by Iran. U.S. forces sank one frigate, one gunboat, and as many as six armed speedboats in the engagement and seriously damaged a second frigate."
2. On 3 July 1988, 290 people were killed when an Iran Air Airbus A300 passenger jet was shot down over the strait by the United States Navy guided missile cruiser USS Vincennes in a case of mistaken identity.
3. 2008 US-Iranian naval dispute
A series of naval stand-offs between Iranian speedboats and U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz occurred in December 2007 and January 2008.
4. On 29 June 2008, the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, Ali Mohammed Jafari, said that if Iran were attacked by Israel or the United States, it would seal off the Strait of Hormuz, to wreak havoc in oil markets. This statement followed other more ambiguous threats from Iran's oil minister and other government officials that a Western attack on Iran would result in turmoil in oil supply.
5. On 8 July 2008, Ali Shirazi, a mid-level clerical aide to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted by the student news agency ISNA as saying to Revolutionary Guards, "The Zionist regime is pressuring White House officials to attack Iran. If they commit such a stupidity, Tel Aviv and U.S. shipping in the Persian Gulf will be Iran's first targets and they will be burned."
6. On 27 December 2011, Iranian Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi threatened to cut off oil supply from the Strait of Hormuz should economic sanctions limit, or cut off, Iranian oil exports.
7. On 3 January 2012, Iran threatened to take action if the U.S. Navy moves an aircraft carrier back into the Persian Gulf. Iranian Army chief Ataollah Salehi said the United States had moved an aircraft carrier out of the Gulf because of Iran's naval exercises, and Iran would take action if the ship returned. "Iran will not repeat its warning...the enemy's carrier has been moved to the Gulf of Oman because of our drill. I recommend and emphasize to the American carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf", he said.
8. On 9 January 2012, Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi denied that Iran had ever claimed that it would close the Strait of Hormuz, saying that "the Islamic Republic of Iran is the most important provider of security in the strait...if one threatens the security of the Persian Gulf, then all are threatened.
After reading the history between Iran and the U.S. since 1988, it should be clear that Iran is getting tired of being on the losing end of the disputes with America. It should be noted and understood that there are also serious internal problems that plague Iran as I write this, and one way for the Iranian "hardliners" to get the population to solidify behind the ruling religious leaders is to have the U.S. viewed as "the devil" that is keeping Israel alive and well. It is my, personal, opinion that Israel is in a "squeeze" regardless if they take offensive action or engage in a defensive action................ but for Israel to wait until after the November elections to make an attack on Iran is probably a huge and disastrous mistake. Mitt Romney is making a visit of that nation in the near future, and he is sure to advise Israel to wait until after the November elections to stage an attack. Of course he is afraid that an attack on Iran before the elections will result, as my Oman friends have said, in Obama staying in office. Romney will insist that should the attack happen after the elections, and he be the new President, he would provide "cover" for the assault. Well Romney can not be trusted anymore than Obama can be trusted. They both are ego seeking politicians, and care little about anything other than their own image. If Israel is to survive, it must make the bold move to attack before the November elections, and trust in the American people to force whomever is in office, as President, to stand alongside Israel. To wait is a sure "death sentence" for the entire population of Israel. An Obama loss in November will cause civil upheaval in America that will preclude Romney to even consider providing cover for Israel.
Lord Howard Hurts